JANUARY 2016 UK & IRELAND FORECAST UPDATED THURSDAY 17TH DECEMBER 2015
+ Staying mild, wet and windy overall
+ Chance of brief early cold snap
+ Mild, wet & windy mid-month
+ Signs of a colder end?
CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
Rainfall:
35% Very wet
25% Wet
25% Average
10% Dry
5% Very dry
Temperature:
35% Very mild
30% Mild
20% Average
10% Cold
5% Very cold
INFERENCE:
Climate models are unanimous in their prediction of a milder than average, wetter than average January.
CFS is calling a very mild month across southern parts of the UK with above average temperatures for all bu the north of Scotland. This models also calls for a very wet month in the west and south, wetter elsewhere.
ECMWF sees a mild start to the month. The flow very much dominated by a westerly pattern; wet in the west and north, not quite so wet in the south. Temperatures well above average for the time of year. Interestingly the latest ideas from the ECMWF call for conditions in the second half of January to turn significantly colder. It is early stages at the present time but it is notable that the NAO and AO noth become negative after 16th which indicate colder weather.
BCC keeps the idea fo a mild month, dominated by a strong jet stream. It calls for wet and mild weather with rainfall significantly above average, especially in the north. By the end of the month the model calls for drier conditions in the south of England due to a build in pressure to the south. It remains very mild.
DISCUSSION:
After a wet, windy and exceptionally mild December, January 2016 is expected to be, overall, very similar.
The jetstream will be stronger than usually over the UK ensuring that strong winds and heavy rain affect all parts of the UK and Ireland at some point. However, there will be occasions when an odd day of colder weather may strike, especially in Scotland, bringing the briefest taste of winter.
The early part of the month may well become colder for a short time, perhaps from around 8th to 12th. This short lived colder snap may affect all parts of the country, with a risk of some snow showers, especially in Scotland and northern England. Note the low confidence.
Things become wetter and windier from around 12th onwards, milder once again too. Watch for heavy rain in more western areas. Temperatures above average.
The final third of the month may start to become cooler, although the arrivale of cold air may be rather hit and miss. Colder air may break through briefly, but the quickly being replaced by milder air once again. It may be in the final week of the month that the weather turns notably colder.
