The main rain threat has shifted a little further north (Cumbria at risk again) according to this mornings model runs.
Chart shows total forecast rain to the end of Boxing Day, from the GFS model, with the focus for the highest totals across northwest England (including Cumbria) and northwest Wales.
Is the current warmth unprecedented?
The UK has been experiencing a run of very mild temperatures this month so far. Temperatures have been in double figures Celsius by day and often by night too for many areas. There have been exceptions, with snow across the hills of northern England and Scotland
An interesting midnight run from the ECMWF but will it be borne out subsequently later today?
The T+216 valid for Sunday 27th December shows a trough passing east of the UK with a colder north to northwest wind developing across the whole of the UK. This would lead to cooler weather
JANUARY 2016 UK & IRELAND FORECAST UPDATED THURSDAY 17TH DECEMBER 2015
+ Staying mild, wet and windy overall
+ Chance of brief early cold snap
+ Mild, wet & windy mid-month
+ Signs of a colder end?
35% Very wet
5% Very dry
35% Very mild
5% Very cold
Climate models are