Wow, this is a tricky one! Conflicting signals from the upper atmosphere leading to differing conclusions as to how February 2016 might pan out.

Current thoughts are dominated by a hit of several days of 'cold' weather, probably in the middle part of the month.

*Early Month*
An unsettle start in Ireland and Scotland. Rain here, the risk of some strong winds, wettest in the west and north of Scotland, drier to the south and east. Probably mild here too, although nearer normal temperatures in the north.
England, Wales and southern Ireland may be under the influence of a ridge of higher pressure. This brings a southwesterly flow, mild conditions but rather moist air. Plenty of cloud in western areas, best sunshine to the east and drier here too. Overall mild with below normal rainfall.

*Mid Month*
It's now that we have most difficulty with the forecast. Without any back up from the long range models we do believer there could be a tendency towards a spell of colder weather. Confidence in this stands around 30% at this time.
The cold snap could last for 5-10 days and may be the coldest hit of winter so far. Several days of freezing temperature, a threat of some snowy days too. Sufficient snow to cause some disruption, although note we aren't going over the top with this.
Much uncertainty, but we'll keep you up to date.

*Late Month*
Once the cold snap (f there is one) abates we believe there will be a spell of milder, more unsettled weather to end the month. It could be windy at times, heaviest rain in the north and west but again drier east and south.
Temperatures eventually returning to nearer normal by the months end.