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Mid February cold hints from ECMWF32

The ECMWF32 output from yesterday (Thursdays 21st, which unfortunately we can't make public here), is ether being mischievous, or it backs our ideas of a mid February cold hit.

It calls for a strong westerly jet early February which brings strong winds and heavy rain after encouraging low pressure areas to deepen and rush eastwards through the Uk, Ireland and much of northern Europe.

Next it goes with the idea of the jet slipping south, perhaps maintaining the unsettled weather, but increasing turning to snow; mostly Scotland but perhaps even further south.

And then mid February builds a ridge in the western Atlantic, trough passing through the UK, flow turning more northwesterly, and hey presto, a cold hit!

Then it's a case of his long any ridge in the Atlantic lasts? Does it block? Does it collapse as quickly as it arrives.

Our current ideas are it collapses as the jet gets gong acres the top of it again, cutting off the pump northwards of the milder tropical air. But it is one that need watching and I wanted to let you know first.

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