There's reasonable agreement once again fro models that pressure is going to be rising over the UK and Ireland this weekend and into next week.

Whilst there is still much uncertainty as to the positiono of the high and exactly how it evolves, there does seem to be little doubt that a pressure rise is on its way.

The chart below showers the forecast pressure trace for the next 15-days from the GFS ensemble (courtesy of Weatheronline.co.uk) over west Wales.

There's no mistaking the upward trend.

I suspect the high is centred somewhere near the north of Scotland, tending towards an easterly flow across most of the country. This would lead one to the supposition that the far south of England is at highest risk of rain, the risk of some drizzle on eastern coasts, and the best of the dry weather and sunshine in Scotland, western England, West Wales and Ireland.

Temperatures would likely stay on the cooler side.

Of course, things could change, and it's still important to emphasise this doesn't look like a large anticyclone sitting over the top of the UK and Ireland, but it is a change to drier, more settled conditions for 70% of us.

Of course we'll keep you updated.