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FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 2016 - FINAL
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Issued: 30th September 2016
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net
HEADLINES
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+ Dry start in east
+ Mixed/stormy mid to final third
+ Cooler spell Scotland & N England
+ Better end
FACTORS AFFECTING OCTOBER 2016 GUIDANCE
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+ Sea temperatures in mid Atlantic west of the UK continue to be colder than average
+ Weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean continues to confuse longer range models
+ Residual heat from last year/early 2016 strong El Nino event has now nearly dissipated
+ Hints of start of stronger MJO event may lead to rising pressures later in the month
OVERVIEW
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There is general agreement between forecasting models and the analogues that high pressure will play a part in the weather of October in the UK and Ireland.
Mid month has consistently been indicated as becoming more unsettled and we still expect this to be the case. However. there is disagreement over how unsettled conditions will become during this period.
Scotland and northern England are likely to become colder as northwest winds become established and there could be some hill snow too. This unsettled weather may extend south through all areas.
The final stages of the month are likely to see pressure building once again.
BREAKDOWN
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1st to 7th
High pressure building to the east.
Dry overall in the east and south, some breezy days and mild too.
Wetter in the west, a few heavy bursts of rain at first.
It may be that the rain breaks eastwards bringing some showery bursts to northern England and eastern Scotland in the middle of the period.
Watch for mist and fog patches England and Wales.
8th to 14th
Pressure is expected to build during this week.
Generally it is going to be dry with sunny spells.
There is a risk of fronts making a break eastwards mid-week bringing rain to all.
Probably turning drier again later in the week.
Increased risk of morning mist and fog, possible ground frost too on clearer nights.
15th to 21st
Much uncertainty here.
Probably a more unsettled and cooler week, especially Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland. Wind, rain and showers here with snow on Scottish hills.
The south of England and Wales are likely to be drier with the threat of morning mist and fog patches, but sunny spells by day. Milder too.
However, note that there is a threat of the cooler, more unsettled weather managing to break south on a few days brigning more unsettled weather to all.
There is also a suggestion of a more deeply unsettled day or two in this week, ut this most likely in the northern UK.
22nd to 31st
The unsettled and cooler pattern continues at the start of this week, again with the risk of snow on Scottish hills.
There could be some showers further south too, and it may be cooler.
A tendency through the week for conditions to settle, especially in the southern two thirds of the country. Temperatures lift a little with a returning to overnight mist and fog patches but drier and fairer days.
PROBABILITIES
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Temperature
- Very mild 20%
- Mild 30%
- Average 25%
- Cool 15%
- Cold 10%
Rainfall
- Very Wet 10%
- Wet 15%
- Average 30%
- Dry 25%
- Very Dry 20%
CONFIDENCE
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Generally moderate, even high on high pressure trying to build through the month. Moderate in mid month unsettled spell and lower in how unsettled, how far south.
** ends **
