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Spring & Summer 2018 – Early Guidance

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++

 

SPRING & SUMMER 2018 - EARLY GUIDANCE
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Issued: Thursday 15th February 2018
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

** Note Meteorological spring refers to the period 1st March to 31st May, meteorological summer refers to 1st June to 31st August **

 

HEADLINES
==========
+ Chilly until end of March
+ Spring better overall than summer
+ Strong signals for a wet June and August
+ July may be a little better

 

PREAMBLE
=========
It's worth stating that the ideas below are simply that - ideas. They are based on a combination of analogue forecasts and model outputs.
Models have been struggling to cope with conditions this winter and the forecast from them for winter was not good.r
Analogues have performed much better, and that is usually a sign that they can be trusted going forward.
However, there will come a time when the analogues fail. It is hard to spot when a failure could occur, but it could be in the months when the analogues diverge, i.e. April and July.
For that reason long range forecasts much be treated with caution.

 

OVERVIEW
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+ Characterised by a chilly start to spring
+ Wet in the south at first
+ Improved April (low confidence), best in south
+ May better south, wetter far north
+ June not a good month, unsettled, wet, near average temperatures
+ July (low confidence), signals for mixed month but notable dry and wet spells
+ August could be wet and unsettled

 

BREAKDOWN
============
MARCH 2018
+ Consistently shown a cool month
+ Wet to the south, jet may be close
+ Drier to the north, staying cool
+ Second half of the month may be a little more settled in south
+ May be milder second half of month

APRIL 2018
+ Uncertainty in forecast for April
+ Some analogues and models call higher pressure and so a milder, drier month
+ Note that some analogues are much more unsettled
+ Expected 60/40 in favour of warmer/drier month at this stage

MAY 2018
+ Higher pressure may affect south of the UK and Ireland, so warm and dry
+ Scotland and Northern Ireland may be wetter and more unsettled, although some dry spells
+ Breezy in north at times

JUNE 2018
+ Shows all the signs of a European monsoon becoming established
+ This brings strong jet stream through the UK and Ireland
+ Wet and windy weather, cool
+ May last for much of the month

JULY 2018
+ Lack of agreement between models and analogues
+ May be month starts unsettled but mild
+ Improves second half, sunny spells and warmer
+ Perhaps best in east, wettest west

AUGUST 2018
+ August has consistently shown itself to be unsettled
+ Analogues and models in good agreement
+ Suggest wet and windy weather
+ Cool
+ Hard to see change during the month

 

PROBABILITIES FOR SPRING & SUMMER
==================================
Temperature
- Very warm 10%
- Warm 20%
- Average 30%
- Cool 25%
- Cold 15%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 15%
- Wet 25%
- Average 30%
- Dry 20%
- Very Dry 10%

 

CONFIDENCE
============
Confidence is moderate although low in detail.

** ends **

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