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Issued: Saturday 1st September 2018

Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

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+ First half of the month fair

+ More unsettled mid-month

+ Improves again later

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+ Warm seas UK and Europe, summer heat remains

+ Cold 'blob' remains west of Ireland and southern Greenland

+ Very warm eastern coasts of USA

+ Developing weak El Nino

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ High may be further east leading to warmer conditions

+ Jet stream may strengthen mid month and be more reluctant to clear again

+ Trough may be closer to west bringing wetter weather here

OVERVIEW
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Models and analogues continue to show that pressure builds early in September and then stays the main feature into the middle of the month. The jet stream then strengthens over the north through the middle stages of the month, a trough developing for a time. The jet then weakens again with a ridge of high pressure builds again to the south which allows for the better end to the month.

BREAKDOWN
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1st to 7th

High pressure dominates and this brings much dry weather.

Weak fronts could bring some showery rain early in the week.

This clears, leaving plenty of sunshine.

Best sunshine in west. Cool nights.

Eastern costs cool at times, breezy in south and east too.

High pressure remains, centred to the east.

Fair for most with sunny spells, cool night and warm days.

Best sunshine in wests

Low cloud affecting eastern areas at times.

Need to watch for shower risk in south.

A taste of autumn?

More of a westerly flow developing with the ridge easing east.

Eastern areas tending to hold onto drier weather for longer.

Rain arriving in the west and most over northern and western areas later in the week.

Less rain to the south.

Risk of strong winds and a few cooler days.

Starts unsettled with fronts bringing cloud, rain and stronger winds north and west.

Ridge builds to the south as jet stream weakens.

Becomes dry with sunny spells from south, sunshine edging north.

Temperatures rising, above average.

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Temperature

- Very warm 15%

- Warm 35%

- Average 25%

- Cool 15%

- Cold 10%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 10%

- Wet 15%

- Average 25%

- Dry 30%

- Very Dry 20%

CONFIDENCE
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Confidence is moderate to high, lower in the change back to more settled conditions later in the month.

**ends**