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ECMWF update to end of October

A warm week ahead but does that warmth stay with us into October?

The ECMWF 46-day forecast does seem to think so and ties in nicely with our monthly analogues.

As always detail is the tricky part and this update of the ECMWF is having to deal with several hurricanes, tropical storms and typhoons. Bear that in mind when reading the forecast below.

17th September to 24th September
High to the east with a trough to the west.
A warm week, very warm in the east (see temperature graph below).
Dry in eastern areas.
Wetter to the west.
Potentially very windy at times, especially north and west.

25th September to 1st October
High pressure remains to the east as a ridge builds.
The high may dominant across the UK.
A dry week for most, plenty of sunshine.
Expect morning fog patches and chilly nights.
Warmer than average.
Risk of some showers in the south.

2nd October to 8th October
Ridge persists to the east.
Trough closer to Ireland.
Showers in west, drier to the east, north and south.
Warm by day, chilly nights with risk of fog.

9th October to 15th October
Large ridge of Scandinavia, trough to west of Ireland.
High extends into the UK and Ireland.
Dry for many.
Overnight mist and fog risk remains.
Cool nights, warm days.
Shower or rain risk in far south.

16th October to 22nd October
High may start to slip away to the east with trough moving into Ireland.
Dry start, sunny spells.
Increasing chance of rain in Ireland and then west and south of UK.
Starting warm then becoming cooler.

23rd October to 29th October
High pressure centred over Scandinavia.
Ridge may extend to Scotland bringing dry and sunny weather.
More mixed elsewhere with most rain in the west and south.

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