Sometimes it's good to just ponder; to sit back and think. Unfortunately it's not often these days that we get chance to do that.

But pondering is good to do sometimes when forecasting as it can clear out some of the clutter which can dominate your thoughts when trying to work out global weather patterns in the coming seasons and months

Using this as an excuse I was earlier looking at the current SST's and working out what impact they any have on the coming winter season. It's something I have mentioned previously ion the Look Ahead video but thought it may be worth a closer look here.

These are the areas I'd highlight ...

1. Cold 'horseshoe' North Atlantic. That leads to a tendency to sit on convection and so higher pressure in these areas. It's similar to the pattern we saw last year.

2. warmer water mid-Atlantic and Arctic. Enhances convection and so rising air here means a lean to lower pressures. This could be a squeeze to the high over the colder waters. All adds to the idea of an anomalous flow over the Atlantic this winter? No signs of changes either.

3. Very warm Pacific Ocean. Again, look to the convective idea and think lower pressures.

4. Similar in the Indian Ocean, warmer west than in the east.

5. El Nino can be clearly seen on the chart below off the west coast of South America. It's which, combined with the anomalies in the Atlantic are this years main drivers.

I need to revise the analogue forecasts, but there won't be much change in them, Will include in the forecasts as we go through the coming weeks.

Ponder over!