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ECMWF 46-day through late February

Goodness, we have only just started the year and we're already almost looking forward to conditions in late spring!

Main area of uncertainty in the forecast below is just how cold it could become in early to mid-February and how much snow there could be. It really is on a knife-edge as if the wind is in a slightly different direction then it would not be as cold.

Anyway, here's what the latest ECMWF 46-day guidance is suggesting for the rest of January and February.

8th January to 14th January
Large ridge build over UK and Ireland with trough in southeast Europe (see chart)
Becoming significantly colder during the week.
Risk of some wintry showers north and east.
Milder weather arrives in the west later.
Turning increasingly murky.

15th January to 21st January
Ridge slowly collapses.
More westerly flow takes over.
Mixed for most, driest in the south.
Rain at times in north.
Temperatures close to average, but progressively cooler.

22nd January to 28th January
Still signs of a ridge which should keep conditions generally drier than average.
Feeling rather cooler.
A transition to colder conditions is likely during the week.
Perhaps some wintry showers developing to the north.
Wintry showers then pushing south.
Frostier to the west.

29th January to 4th February
High strengthens to the west of Ireland as low deepens central Europe.
Colder north to northeast flow.
Risk of wintry weather in much of the UK, mostly east and south. Snow risk.
Frosty and cold in west.
Risk of becoming very cold.

5th February to 11th February
Signs of a cold or very cold period here.
Could be an east to northeast flow in the south with further wintry weather.
Drier and frostier west and north.
Note low confidence in depth of cold as could be milder than suggested.

12th February to 18th February
Staying cold with wintry weather for many.
East and south of UK probably most affected by any snow.
Less snow north and west.

**ends**

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