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ECMWF 46-day update through end of March

I'm pleased to report things seem to be going according to plan.

The latest 6-week forecast from the ECMWF is leaning heavily into our initial ideas for March.

Here's what it says...

15th February to 22nd February
Large ridge east of the UK. Trough west of Ireland (see chart).
Mild southerly airflow affecting all areas.
Outbreaks of rain far west of Ireland. Drizzle and low cloud western coasts of UK.
Drier, brighter east, best of the sunshine.

23rd February to 1st March
Ridge becomes stronger over eastern UK.
Flow may turn more southeasterly, perhaps leading to cooler conditions.
Dry for most, sunny spells, best in west.
May be some low cloud in the east.
Cooler overall.

2nd March to 8th March
Ridge remains strong, but slowly retreats east later in the week.
Trough starts to move back into the west of Ireland.
Periods of rain affecting western Ireland later.
Dry for most other areas.
Cool in east. Milder west.

9th March to 15th March
Trough advances slowly through Ireland and into the west of UK.
Ridge retreats east.
Cloud and outbreaks of rain in much of western UK.
Dry start in the east, then becoming more mixed.

16th March to 22nd March
Signs of pressure beginning to mild again.
May become fine in south, mild too.
Rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland, mostly light.
May be windy in northwest.

23rd March to 29th March
Fine weather as ridge build to the south.
Southwest flow leads to mild or warm conditions.
Good spells of sunshine, best in east.
Lower cloud on western coasts and hills at times.



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