Things sometimes get tricky when forecasting. You think you have a story mapped out, and then something comes along to shake your confidence.
That's where I am at the moment. Everything was going well with the thoughts of a dry and very warm summer in the east, but also wetter in the west. That was after a mixed April and unsettled May.
Now, as you will have seen in the Look Ahead video, things may be changing.
Developments over the past few weeks have lead to a tweak of the analogue forecast which in turn have led to a change in the overall ideas for spring and summer.
This is a story I'll be developing in the coming weeks, but when I see this chart for April, alarm bells ring ...
It shows the potential for a very wet month with the jet stream overhead.
Add this to the summer analogues and it stacks up to something wetter...
Now, this isn't out official forecast and additional information is still to be added. But we need to stay across this development.
We will keep you informed!