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SEASONAL GUIDANCE - APRIL, MAY & JUNE 2019
Issued: Wednesday 13th March 2019
+ Fair early April, more mixed later
+ Uncertain for May, probably wettest west, drier east
+ Fair north for June, thundery south
The forecast for spring and early summer 2019 has been presenting a few uncertainties in the weather detail. This has been mostly due to the development of the El Nino event which for some models remains weak, whilst for others becomes a moderate event.
However, a story is emerging which is closer to the thoughts we developed in the winter, before the more unsettled signals given in February.
Analogue and model based forecasting techniques are delivering similar solutions, and whilst confidence remains low this does build our hope that the guidance below is going in the right direction.
+ Higher pressure is likely to start the month south & east of UK
+ Brings dry start, should be warm, good spells of sunshine
+ Rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland at times
+ The south tending to drier weather, sunnier too
+ May become more mixed for many after second half of month
+ In south temperature above average, rainfall below average
+ In north, temperature close to average, rainfall around average.
+ Higher pressure east, trough west of the UK
+ Main question is how far east the trough extends
+ If it is further east then conditions over the UK and Ireland will be more unsettled
+ Ireland and western parts of the UK are at most risk of showers and rain
+ Eastern areas of the UK are best placed to be drier
+ If the trough is further west, then drier weather will affect most of the UK
+ Warmer weather for many in this scenario with only the far west of Ireland wetter.
+ Lower pressure is expected to the south of the UK and Ireland
+ Higher pressure over and to the north
+ This may allow for drier, sunnier and warmer than average weather for many
+ Southern England and southern Ireland may have a higher risk of rain and showers
+ Possibly thundery in central and southern England, Wales and southern Ireland
+ Perhaps more unsettled later in the month