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April 2019 – Final Guidance

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APRIL 2019 - FINAL GUIDANCE
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Issued: Saturday 30th March 2019
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
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+ Cool showery start
+ May improve after mid-month
+ Possibly unsettled later

FACTORS AFFECTING APRIL 2019 FINAL GUIDANCE
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+ Reasonably static ENSO, weakly positive
+ Continued low solar activity
+ Models strongly favour high pressure
+ Analogue forecasts suggesting more mixed/unsettled month

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ Pressure may build more strongly
+ Second half of the month may stay unsettled
+ Need to watch for the risk of unsettled weather throughout
+ Also need to be aware of chance of pressure building

OVERVIEW
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The early stages of the month are expected to be dominated by a trough of lower pressure which will be bringing showers, cool conditions across much of the UK and Ireland. There is a risk of wintry showers over the high ground of Scotland and northern England in the cooler air. After the middle stages of the month pressure may well build, leading to ma spel of milder, drier weather. This would occur ahead of the weather turning more unsettled again later as the jet stream re-establishes.

BREAKDOWN
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1st to 7th

Cold and showery.
Windy at times.
Most showers north and east.
Overnight frosts risk.
Significant wind-chill.
Risk of some wintry showers on hills in north.

8th to 14th
Staying cool and showery.
Showers could be heavy at times
Most showers to the north and west.
Overnight frost risk.

15th to 21st
There are hints of pressure building within this period.
This should allow for sunnier and drier conditions.
Temperatures are likely to be close or above average for most.
Eastern areas may be cooler at times.
Overnight frost risk.
Best sunshine probably in the west.

22nd to 31st
Starting fair with sunny spells.
Pressure slips as the week progresses.
Becoming more mixed to unsettled later in the week.
Most rain to the north and west.

PROBABILITIES
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Temperature

- Very mild 10%
- Mild 20%
- Average 35%
- Cool 25%
- Cold 10%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 10%
- Wet 20%
- Average 30%
- Dry 25%
- Very Dry 15%

CONFIDENCE
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Confidence is low to moderate.

**ends**

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