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MJO hints at better weather, but for how long?

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

The MJO is showing a strong tendency towards phases 2, 3, 4 and then weakening into phase 5.

Phases 2 and 3 tends towards more mixed conditions, although phase 4 which is predicted to occur around 15th June does lean into more settled weather.

This is backed up by other forecasts which do hint at building pressure, although not over the top of the UK.

I've hinted that this better spell of weather may not last that long.By 20th we are into Phase 5 and that is much more unsettled.

Now, the ECMWF 46-day does keep the high pressure east of the UK, but that's not seen by the CFS.

So, there are some disagreements which we need to monitor carefully.

 

 

Dr. Simon Keeling

2 thoughts on “MJO hints at better weather, but for how long?”

  1. HI Simon,
    Last year you looked down on the north pole and saw weather patterns that had previuosly preceeded four very dry winters and you forecast a dry winter . Certainly here in St Neots Cambs my farm has been very dry all winter and spring . I wondered what you predict for the coming summer and Autumn ?
    Best wishes
    Richard Squire

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