+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. ++
++ THIS GUIDANCE MUST BE TREATED WITH EXTREME CAUTION, IT IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ++
SEASONAL GUIDANCE - AUTUMN & WINTER 2019/2020
Issued: Wednesday 11th September 2019
+ Probably a colder than average winter
+ Drier than average
+ Frost, sleet and snow days probably above average
Forecast confidence is very low at the present time with much divergence of opinion between models and forecast methods.
There does seem to be agreement in the idea of higher pressure being more dominant although the positioning of this high will be crucial in determining how cold (or mild) conditions may be.
Overall our current thoughts are for a colder than average winter. Several factor are combining to point to the risk of a colder winter including low solar activity.
However, analogue forecasts using similar sea surface temperatures and upper air patterns also lead to higher pressure, but a tendency towards milder westerly winds (although still with some cooler spells and the risk of snow showers in Scotland).
+ The month probably starts mixed
+ Periods of rain, wettest in the west
+ Less rain in the east and south
+ Warm for most
+ Little change is expected as the month progresses
+ Higher pressure is likely to be close to the country
+ It may be a mild start to the month
+ Overnight frosts
+ Tending towards cooler conditions as the month progresses
+ Increasingly chilly during the month
+ Ridge of higher pressure over southern parts of the UK
+ Tending to dry conditions and rather cool, especially in north
+ Some cold days
+ Overnight frosts
+ More unsettled northern Scotland, sleet and snow
OUTLOOK JANUARY, FEBRUARY & MARCH 2020
Note that confidence is very low.
Hints of a cool January. Risk of snow in northern half of the UK.
February may be a colder month. Rather wintry. Drier than average but sleet, snow and frost at times.
March may stay chill and rather dry. Risk of sleet and snow in the south.