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ECMWF Spring 2021 Guidance

The latest seasonal outlook from the ECMWF is available and although we can't show you the charts, we can certainly describe what they suggest.

It is impossible to suggest time periods when looking at this seasonal model, but we can give broad overviews as to what might happen.

Now, I find the ECMWF seasonal is not as good as the ECMWF 46-day, so do treat this guidance cautiously.

I'm still working on the guidance for winter and hope to have that available for you in the coming days.

For now, here's what March and April 2021 are hinted at by the model.

March 2021
A trough over the east of North America.
This weakens the jet stream in the Atlantic with a weak ridge building in the west.
A weak trough mid-Atlantic with a weak ridge over the UK at higher levels.
This pattern would bring temperature above average in most areas of the UK.
It would also hint at drier than average weather to the south, but nearer average elsewhere.
Most rain in northern and western areas.

April 2021
A stronger jet in the western Atlantic.
This results in a ridge building in the east Atlantic.
Higher pressure is forecast to be close to the south of the UK.
Tending to warmer than average weather, and drier than average conditions too.


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