The MJO is something we've not had to take much notice of through the winter months as there has been nothing particularly to report as guidance.

However, it's worth checking in with the MJO as colder weather is hinted, if only for a short time next week.

The MJO confirms this as it enters Phase 7 (below) and into Phase 8. These suggest that the cold hit will not be lasting too long, and this is backed up by the models.

Notice that after 7th February the MJO becomes very weak. This can hint at uncertainty in the models and it's something we will monitor.

Again, I'm still leaning into the possibility of a more notable change mid-month as higher pressure builds, but I'll keep you updated over the coming days on this.