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More on February cold risk

It's interesting to see how the JMA model is now handling the forecast for February. Here's the JMA 500mb anomalies. Notice the low heights over the south of the Uk with the high heights to the north. This suggests a tendency towards a cool, east to northeast flow with lower pressure

ECMWF 46-day outlook to end of January 2019

  Today's ECMWF takes us almost completely through January. There's some interesting hints about what the weather may be doing from mid-January with signs of wintry weather. It's still a long way off, and remember this is only the ECMWF model. It's certainly worth watching though as this matches our winter forecast. 14th December

Snow cover & stratospheric warming impacts

It's been a while since we took a look at the hemispheric snow cover. Here's the latest automated snow and ice cover map from the CDC. Notice the snow now into the northern USA and the extent of the snow over much of Russia and northern China. Snow is starting to affect

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