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De-tangling Computer Weather Model Output Differences

Firstly, what is computer weather model output? The output computer models give us is what we as forecasters use to calculate and interpret how the current weather changes over time. This is done by a supercomputer receiving many current weather observations as a starting point (with also some data assimilation

Are Short Lived Heat Waves Now The Norm?

Is the UK now heading into a pattern of more sudden short lived heat waves rather than a more prolonged build up of 'hot spells'? In recent years heat records have been broken by one-day heat surges. Last Friday, 31st July, showed this happen once again. Temperatures rose, in some areas

5 Week Ahead Weather Things To Know

What's in store for the week ahead: 1- Some showers on Monday: A day of sunny spells and some scattered showers. These showers mainly confined to northern and western parts of the UK initially but will become more widespread through the day. Potentially with the odd heavier burst in the east later

The Icelandic Low and Azores High battle

What does the Icelandic Low have to do with our British weather? Will the Azores High become more of an influence through August? The Icelandic Low is a semi-permanent area of low pressure found between Iceland and the south of Greenland. It extends into the Northern Hemisphere and has profound affects on our

Comparing heat spikes

Friday found it's way into the upper portions of the record books, with 37.8C the highest temperature recorded at Heathrow airport, putting it in 3rd place on the table of hottest days recorded in the UK, behind 25th July 2019, and 10th August 2003. Widespread temperatures of 33C were recorded across

August 2020 – Final Guidance

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ AUGUST 2020 - FINAL GUIDANCE =================================== Issued: Friday 31st July 2020 Contact: HEADLINES ========== + Hot in east at first + A mixed month + Most rain north & west FACTORS AFFECTING AUGUST 2020 FINAL GUIDANCE ============================================= + Ridge

Signs of high pressure coming

There are signs of a possible ridge of high pressure building in across the UK later next week and into the following weekend. Both leading models suggest an area of high pressure trying to build in over the UK, however, the questions stand, is how much confidence is there in

A Spanish Plume occurring on Friday?

At the end of the week we will see the beginnings of a breakdown in this short lived hot weather period possibly occurring in one of Summer's classic hot weather events known as a Spanish Plume. The brief definition of a Spanish Plume is a very warm air mass moving

Rising temperatures later in the week

The UK is set to get warmer this week and will become very warm or even hot, mainly in the southeast of England, towards the end of the week and into the weekend. This high temperature weather set up is rather classic for this time of year yet short lived