Spring is just around the corner...honest! The ECMWF 6-Week outlook confirms this as it now extends into the middle stages of March.
Remember this is the forecast from only one model, others may and do differ.
Here's what the latest forecast suggests ...
30th January to 5th February
Jet stream over or south of
There's more wet weather on its way over the coming week. I showed this chart in yesterdays Look Ahead, but I think it worth reiterating here again.
This is total forecast rain to 6am next Tuesday 2nd February. The yellow and orange colours are the heaviest rain and show a forecast
The GFS and ECMWF deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with the forecast for this coming working week so there is reasonably good confidence in the outlook for the next five days. Here are five "things to know" for this Monday to Friday.
1 - A largely dry and fine
Over the past week or so the Madden-Julian Oscillation has remained weaker than forecast and did not emerge with a strong signature in Phase 4 (western Indonesia) as expected. However, as we go through the coming four weeks there is greater agreement among the models that we are going to
While Saturday is looking largely settled but with rain, sleet and snow showers affecting far northern and western areas, it will be cold. Sunday is forecast to see a possible snow event occur as a front hits the colder air. The below charts show the latest GFS model output on
Hey, it's another lockdown weekend, and it's probably not a bad one for getting out and about, but you will need to wrap up warm.
Of course, if it's a working weekend for you then there'll be little change to your weekday routine, bu if you're outdoors it will be feeling
The jet stream has been over and to the south of the UK and Ireland in the last few days. This has brought the heavy rain that we are currently experiencing. As it drifts further south, so we will be on the colder, but drier side of the jet stream.
+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++
FEBRUARY 2021 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE
Issued: Wednesday 20th January 2021
+ Unsettled start, wind and rain
+ Mild south, colder north
+ Becoming drier and cool to cold for all
FACTORS AFFECTING FEBRUARY
In yesterdays Look Ahead I spoke about the JMA outlook for February, March and April.
Here are the charts again, highlighting how the JMA consistently wants to keep higher heights, and higher pressure, north of the UK and Ireland, with lower pressure to the south, well into spring.
February (below) keeps the
Latest rainfall totals forecast between now and midday on Thursday.
This shows the target areas for the highest rainfall are NW England, Wales and central parts of Ireland.
Such high totals will lead to flooding and could lead to a threat of life due to fast flowing streams and rivers.
Notice the contrast