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ECMWF 46-day outlook to late November

INteresting developments in todays ECMWF 46-day outlook, which if they were to prove correct, could lead to some chillier weather from mid November. Here are the details so far ... 19th to 25th October Trough over the UK and Ireland. Rather mixed at first, but then improving slowly as a ridge builds (see

JMA November, December & January ideas

The Japanese Meteorolpgical Agency have issued their forecasts for the next 3-months, of which I'll be talkig more in the Look Ahead videos in the coming days. Here's the forecast for rainfall which is showing as blue over the UK and Ireland which indicates wetter than average conditions. Not desperately wet

5 Week Ahead Weather Things to Know

1 - Mixed conditions continue this week as low pressure continues to dominate the weather for the UK and Ireland 2 - Temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side of average throughout the week though there will be a few milder days to the far southeast     3 - Nights will

Latest Met Office Winter 2019/2020 Forecast

The latest update from the Met Office's seasonal prediction system, GloSea5, was released on Friday and I've copied some of the charts for you below for this upcoming winter season (December 2019, January 2020 and February 2020). The charts show the mean conditions forecast by a 42-member ensemble over the

5 Weekend Weather Things to Know

1 - Mixed and breezy conditions prevail as low pressure stays close-by through this coming weekend 2 - Temperatures will be slightly below where we would expect them to be for the time of year for most of us with the exception of the far southeast where temperatures will be around,

ECMWF 46-day Update to late November

There are some hints from the ECMWF 46-day model output of an improvement in conditions towards the end of the month. Here's the latest thoughts from the ECMWF ... 12th October to 18th October A deep trough northwest of Scotland (see chart). Unsettled conditions over much of the UK and Ireland. Rain, heaviest in the

ECMWF Spring 2021 Guidance

The latest seasonal outlook from the ECMWF is available and although we can't show you the charts, we can certainly describe what they suggest. It is impossible to suggest time periods when looking at this seasonal model, but we can give broad overviews as to what might happen. Now, I find the

5 Week Ahead Weather Things to Know

Conditions remained mixed, unsettled at times, this week so here are 5 "things to know"... 1 - On the whole this week, temperatures will be around about where we expect them to be at this time of year. 2 - It may feel chillier at times though as winds will be fresh

Sleeping Sun = Cold winter?

The Sun is staying quiet with many spotless days this year, 201 so far. A familiar discussion amongst seasonal forecasters is how much impact a quiet sun has. It’s not the only factor to look at when thinking of winter temperatures, other indices such as the QBO come into play too. I’m working

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