You are here
Home > Musings

5 Weather Week Things to Know

It's a rather unsettled outlook for the coming week. Here are five things to keep an eye out for: 1. Temperatures will be close to average for the time of year this week with highs reaching 9 or 10C in the south of England and coastal fringes of Wales; 7 or

Freezing rain and ice but why?

There will be a phenomena across the UK today which we don't experience very! Yes, I know, you see ice on the roads and pavements after a cold winters night, but it's not often that we find it falling from the sky. To imagine it is falling all the way as

More on February cold risk

It's interesting to see how the JMA model is now handling the forecast for February. Here's the JMA 500mb anomalies. Notice the low heights over the south of the Uk with the high heights to the north. This suggests a tendency towards a cool, east to northeast flow with lower pressure

ECMWF 46-day outlook to end of January 2019

  Today's ECMWF takes us almost completely through January. There's some interesting hints about what the weather may be doing from mid-January with signs of wintry weather. It's still a long way off, and remember this is only the ECMWF model. It's certainly worth watching though as this matches our winter forecast. 14th December

Snow cover & stratospheric warming impacts

It's been a while since we took a look at the hemispheric snow cover. Here's the latest automated snow and ice cover map from the CDC. Notice the snow now into the northern USA and the extent of the snow over much of Russia and northern China. Snow is starting to affect

5 Weather Week Things To Know

1. High pressure is in charge at the start of the week and will persist through Tuesday bringing a spell of cold, calm, bright and dry weather for many. 2. Low pressure moves in from Tuesday evening leading to a spell of unsettled weather. It will bring temperatures closer to average

November Summary

The UK Met Office released their climate summary for November 2018 this week and, unsurprisingly, it was warmer than average. But how much warmer? Well, that depends on the reference period you use. Meteorologists and climatologists use 30-year reference periods when calculating climate statistics. The most recent "standard reference period"

ECMWF 46-day updated to mid January

Now, the ECMWF 46-day hasn't exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. having predicted cold weather next week, it's retreated back to 'normal' winter mode. I think this reflects the uncertainty of the impact of several factors right now ... Rapid loss of sunlight as we head to the shortest

NAO and AO still pointing to cold weather

  The NAO forecast from the CFS model makes for interesting reading today. Look how much more negative the index goes from late January into February. It bounced along in neutral territory overall running up to the negative hit. This suggests that despite Atlantic westerly winds in December, they may not be that