High pressure common, but changing patterns.
Mixed is the word yet again, but the south & east stays largely dry.
A mixed weather pattern continues, with rain for some but not all.
It's that time of the month when the JMA issue their forecast for the coming three months.
And the autumn forecast is always fascinating to see. Note though, this isn't our official forecast!
Here's what they suggest for September.
They go with a trough west of the UK, higher heights to the east
That availability of the numerical long range forecasts going into September tend to allow for the view ahead to be a little clearer.
Below is the analogue forecast based on years when an El Nino event started to occur Now, this years event is certainly weak at the present time, but
We're already talking about the forecast for September, time seems to go by ever faster!
Here's the latest from the ECMWF 46-day model ...
17th to 24th August
Jet stream stays over the north of the UK (see chart).
Height are above average, suggesting ridging in the south of the country.
Generally dry in southern
During the summer months the NAO becomes pretty useless as an indicator, but by late August it starts to become handy once again.
Here's the NAO forecast through to early November (yes, really!) from the CFS. Now, you can't take it as anything too gospel but as far as hints for
Mixed westerlies will be the theme this week.
Arctic ice extent is low, but a long way from record lows.
A mixed weekend ahead, some dry weather, but also heavy rain.