More on the winter JAMSTEC forecast

by Dr. Simon Keeling - October 18, 2018October 17, 2018

In yesterdays Look Ahead I went through the JAMSTEC forecast charts for the coming winter, spring and summer. Let's look at those in more detail. Here's the ENSO forecast from JAMSTEC and this is one of the stronger El Nino forecasts. See how the forecast is for a +1.8 index by the

September, October & November latest guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - August 17, 2018August 16, 2018

It's that time of the month when the JMA issue their forecast for the coming three months. And the autumn forecast is always fascinating to see. Note though, this isn't our official forecast! Here's what they suggest for September. They go with a trough west of the UK, higher heights to the east

Forecast for Spring & Summer CS3 update

by Dr. Simon Keeling - April 17, 2018April 16, 2018

The latest C3S Copernicus forecast which combines output from the UK Met Office, ECMWF and MeteoFrance seasonal forecast have just been published. I'll talk more about these in the Look Ahead video today (I'll have it online around midday), but wanted to show you some it this morning. Here's the forecast for

NAO keeps negative bias into spring & summer

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 22, 2018March 22, 2018

It's been a while since we looked at the NAO, so here's the latest forecast of the NAO from the CFS. Notice just how negative the index has been since the end of February (the red shading). Then see how as we go through spring and into early summer the hints

Spring & Summer 2018 – Early Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - February 15, 2018February 14, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ SPRING & SUMMER 2018 - EARLY GUIDANCE ====================================== Issued: Thursday 15th February 2018 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net ** Note Meteorological spring refers to the period 1st March to 31st May, meteorological summer refers to 1st

Video: Monday’s Look Ahead – February, March & April Update

by Dr. Simon Keeling - January 22, 2018January 22, 2018

Spring and summer; conundrums and integration

by Dr. Simon Keeling - January 7, 2018January 6, 2018

You'll see in Saturday's Look Ahead my updated ideas on the coming spring and summer. Now, I've been doing a bit more digging taking a look at years which conform to the the current forecast of a weak La Nina (that's cold upwelling of water in the eastern Pacific) becoming a

December 2017 Weather Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - November 30, 2017November 29, 2017

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ WEATHER GUIDANCE FOR DECEMBER 2017 ===================================== Issued: Wednesday 29th November 2017 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + A 'switching' month + Some colder, some milder weather + Near average rain + Risk of cold days FACTORS AFFECTING DECEMBER 2017 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ======================================================= +

Winter 2017/18 – Very Early Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - October 21, 2017October 20, 2017

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ WINTER 2017/18 UPDATE ===================== Issued: Saturday 21st October 2017 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========= + Cooler than recent years + More definite 'cold spikes' + Focus on late January & February OVERVIEW ======== There has been a growing consensus through the spring

Next weeks uncertainty continues

by Dr. Simon Keeling - June 15, 2017June 14, 2017

ECMWF and GFS are still fighting it out over how things shape up next week. The latest (midday Wednesday) run of the GFS and ECMWF are showing more signs of agreement now, but there's still much uncertainty. Here's the GFS which shows a large anticyclone north of the UK and the low