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La Nina continues to stay negative through winter

  In yesterdays Look Ahead video I talk about how the La Nina in the Pacific ocean will be having a major impact on the weather of the Northern Hemisphere into the winter months. By coincidence the IRI//CPC forecast of forecasts has been released and is shown below. This shows the bold green,

NAO continues to show early winter colder east winds

Here's the latest NAO forecast from the CFS model taking us into early January 2021. What is interesting here is that the model tends to go with the idea of a negative index. You'll notice there are only a few brief occasions when we slip into positive territory, notably mid November

ECMWF 6-Week Update to end of November

The update form the 6-week ECMWF model has just been updated. I compared the ECMWF with the GFS Ensemble in yesterdays Look Ahead and the two do seem to be in agreement, building confidence in the forecast. So here goes with the latest thoughts from the ECMWF ... 17th October to 23rd October Low