We've not been able to provide great certainty on the risk of thunderstorms this coming week - slack pressure and poorly-defined weather features makes this job quite challenging. However, we can take a look at the Convective Available Potential Energy (or "CAPE") charts to hone in on this probability. Below

Even with a named storm rolling through in early August, there simply hasn't been enough rain to give the soils a good, sustained wetting across much of England. See the graphic below for the soil wetness status from the COSMOS-UK monitoring network from August 5, the day after Storm Floris. Much