We have started getting more calls on what our views are on the spring as well as summer seasons coming up. The team here are busy collating analyses on all different models, analogues and more, to try and bring as consistent a story as we can. The Japanese Meteorological Agency
Seasonal
Video: Wednesday’s Look Ahead – Seasonal update for Spring and Summer
Video: Sunday’s Look Ahead – Winter update
Video: Saturday’s Look Ahead – Autumn & Winter from ECMWF
August 2022 – Final Guidance
+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ AUGUST 2022 - FINAL GUIDANCE ==================================== Issued: Saturday 30th July 2022 Contact: alexi@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Staying largely dry in the far south and southeast throughout. + Average conditions expected elsewhere as a westerly flow sets
August 2022 – Preliminary Guidance
+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ AUGUST 2022 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ==================================== Issued: Saturday 16th July 2022 Contact: alexi@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Staying largely dry in the southeast and east throughout. + Average conditions expected elsewhere as a westerly flow sets up. +
July 2022 – Preliminary Guidance
+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ JULY 2022 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ==================================== Issued: Saturday 18th June 2022 Contact: alexi@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + An overall mixed month of weather. + Perhaps drier initially then more average rainfall expected. + Warmer spells likely further south. FACTORS
Video: Saturday’s Look Ahead – a seasonal outlook from the JMA
Summer forecast update from analogues
Looking back at previous years with a similar pressure pattern we can use analogous techniques to produce guidance for the coming seasons. Peitao Peng at NOAA regularly produces such forecasts, and it's always interesting to see what his techniques produce. It's a method of forecast to which some are skeptical, but in
June 2022 – Final Guidance
+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ JUNE 2022 - FINAL GUIDANCE ==================================== Issued: Saturday 28th May 2022 Contact: alexi@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Overall a mixed/unsettled month. + The first half suggested as the better half for drier weather. + The second half looks