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Thoughts on winter from Japan

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

In yesterdays Look Ahead I mentioned the winter forecast from the JMA. Below is the forecast 50mb anomalies through December to February 2022. Notice the yellow colours over the UK which indicate higher than average pressure. The centre of the higher pressures appear to be in the Atlantic and so we'd expect

Jet ramping up

by Alexi Venerus -

We see a change from high pressure to dominant low pressure this coming week as the Jet ramps up across the North Atlantic. Expect frequent and in places spells of heavy rain, heaviest across more western areas of the UK and Ireland through the week, while somewhat patchier in nature

Let’s chat charts…ECMWF model output to be exact

by Alexi Venerus -

With the latest ECMWF six week outlook coming out yesterday we can now get an insight into what the weather pattern may evolve into through the whole month of November. Before then we have the second half of October to contend with and it does look to be rather mixed

5 Weather Things To Know About The Weekend

by Alexi Venerus -

We hang on to the high pressure just about through the weekend though Atlantic low pressure is waiting in the wings. Here are the five things you need to know about the weekend ahead: 1- Largely settled: High pressure slides towards the near continent but continues to hold influence over the

A chillier stint on Friday

by Alexi Venerus -

It looks like we are heading for a brief chillier stint come Friday in the north in particular. Perhaps even a touch of frost in some sheltered, rural regions away from towns and cities across Scotland as the minimum temperatures drop back rather significantly. So what is going on? A cold

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to late November

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

The ECMWF 6-week outlook has just been published, now taking us into the later stages of November. It makes for typically autumnal reading with wind, rain and frosts in the forecast. The details are below... 16th October to 22nd October Strong southwest flow develops (see chart below). Lower than average heights to north. Risk of gales. Becoming

NAO & AO show way to go for early winter

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

Something we've not looked at for a while is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. Each prove really very useful when forecasting the weather for the winter months. Here's the NAO forecast from the CFS. Red is what has happened, the grey shading is what is forecast

5 Weather Things to Know About The Week Ahead

by Alexi Venerus -

High pressure is the dominating weather feature across the country, allowing for a mainly settled and dry week ahead, although some rain is expected at times. Here are the five things you need to know about the week ahead: 1- High pressure dominant: A fairly settled week with high pressure, centred

All quiet in the tropics

by Garry Nicholson -

It's been a fairly busy few weeks in the tropical Atlantic, with various storms and hurricanes moving through, including Sam, which drifted up to the north Atlantic during the past week. To some extent, our current pattern is still being influenced by the remnants of this system - it drew

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