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Thos end of February/early March signals

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

Just to reiterate the thoughts in yesterday's Look Ahead video updating on spring and summer. This is the CFS weekly 500mb anomalies for the end of February and early March. It's likely that this will be a crucial period for the atmospheric circulation pattern and if we do find the jet stream

5 Weather Week Things To Know

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

We are heading into the final weeks of winter 2022/23 and it seems as though the weather is going to be staying largely dry for most of us. The exception this week will be northwest Scotland where there will be some gales and rain. Elsewhere the weather remains quiet. Here are your 5

Warming back again?

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

When you think you have got rid of one stratospheric warming event, another one comes along to take its place. Here's the forecast 10hPa temperature for 16th February. Look at the grey colours over Russia, swinging into the Pole. That's a warming event and it is bound to have an impact on

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook To Mid March

by Alexi Venerus -

February shows a consistent story of high pressure dominance throughout much of the month. This consequently would give a drier month on average. Perhaps a turn may come about in March...? Here is what the latest run of the longer range ECMWF looks like... 6th February to 12th February Ridge of high pressure

5 Weekend Weather Things to Know

by Alexi Venerus -

High pressure remains the dominant weather feature this weekend, though there is some weather about. Here are five things to know about the weekend ahead; 1- Cold front with rain on it, heavy in the north and west for a time, will clear from the west on Saturday. 2- Brighter conditions yet

Predicted rainfall for February

by Alexi Venerus -

Looking through the next ten days when it comes to the amount of accumulated rainfall, the country as a whole is not receiving a lot. High pressure close by is keeping some areas over the next 10 days completely dry. See below the predicted accumulated rainfall across the country from

Keeping a watchful eye on potential cold mid month

by Alexi Venerus -

As the month changes from January to February, we are keeping our eyes peeled for any wintry, colder stints shown on the model output as we go forward. One is starting to show up on a couple models currently whereby we may just see higher pressure build in across Scandinavia

MJO showing building pressure late February?

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

Interesting to see the latest MJO with a definite strong signal for phases 5 and 6 in February (see below). Whilst being conscious of confirmation bias, this could be the first signal of some pattern change later in the month.     Here's the phase 6 MJO for February. The green colours shows higher

5 Weather Week Things To Know

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

And so bring on February! That's the final month of meteorological winter, so we've nearly done it, just got to hang in there! These are your 5 Weather Things To Know for this week... 1. Windy: It will b breezy at times, a risk of severe gales in northern Scotland, especially Tuesday

Update to spring and summer analogues

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

An update to the seasonal forecasts has been issued for March, April and May as well as June, July and August. These from the office of Petao Peng at the NWS. Below is the 20mb anomalies for spring. Notice the orange colours over the UK and Northern Europe, this indicates a tendency towards

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