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New model, better forecasts?

The GFS Ensemble model has undergone a major upgrade which could have (hopefully) beneficial impacts on forecasts. The headlines are that once daily, based on the midnight run, the model will be extending to 35-days ahead. It will also be running at a higher resolution out to 10-days ahead, as well as

October 2020 – Preliminary Guidance

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ OCTOBER 2020 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE =================================== Issued: Wednesday 23rd September 2020 Contact: HEADLINES ========== + Cool in a north to northeast wind + Drier north and west + Rain & showers south and east FACTORS AFFECTING OCTOBER

5 Weather Week Things To Know

A change in the weather is coming this week; dry, settled and warm conditions move out and wetter, windier and cooler weather moves in. By Friday there are signs of a ridge of high pressure moving in again, but only for a brief time. Here are your 5 Weather Week Things


You may have heard the term, 'medicane', be mentioned once or twice recently. The name comes about when an area of low pressure deepens significantly over the Mediterranean forming a hurricane eye like feature in it's centre such as what you would get in a developing hurricane in the Atlantic

ECMWF Outlook to early November

The ECMWF 6-week model is now looking ahead through the middle stages of meteorological autumn (which runs from September through November). There's a definite trend towards cooler conditions during October with higher pressure building in the Atlantic to the west of the UK and Ireland. Here are the details ... 21st September to 27th September A

5 Weekend Weather Things To Know

Sometimes early autumn weather can be stunning, and that's exactly how some of us will be experiencing the weather this weekend. Having said that southern areas will be breezy, and there will be some cloud on Eastern coasts, but generally it should be fair for most. Here are your 5 Weekend Weather

Revisiting Sunday’s Musing

On Sunday I posted a musing here about an impending rainfall event over western Scotland. Today, I thought it might be interesting to revisit this event and see how well the forecast models performed. I posted two forecasts of the event, shown below, which were pretty similar. On the left is

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to late October

As we enter the middle of September the ECMWF 6-week outlook model is now extending to the end of October. There are some signs of fine weather, but some rain and cooler conditions too. Here are the details of the latest output from the model ... 19th September to 25th September Ridge of high

What Happens After W? We Go Greek!

Those of you who regularly watch our Look Ahead videos here at should know by now that we are just past the peak of a very active Atlantic Hurricane season. (Climatologically speaking, the peak of the season occurs on 11th September). The latest storm to be named is Tropical Storm