We looking well into the late autumn now with the 6-week guidance from ECMWF with mid-November now in our sights.
Here's what the latest guidance is suggesting ...
2nd October to 8th October
Higher pressure tending to be southeast of the country with low pressure to the west.
Warm and far over much of England,
We flip the page into another month this weekend and close out what will most likely be one of the warmest Septembers on the statistical record - thanks largely to the extended hot spell early in the month, but backed up by regular mild or warm southwesterly airflows.
Below is a 35 day outlook of the Birmingham region from the GFS ensemble model and what it predicts the next month will look like currently. I have marked out some key features that I feel the model picks up on as we go through October. Of perhaps particular notice