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May : folklore, climatology, model

May is often the month which brings the first warmth of early summer, daylength is still increasing, the atmosphere warms with depth with increasing irradiance and daytime maximum temperatures respond with a 4C increase in average temperature during the month.  Highest temperature is generally above 23C and can top 30C

It always seems to rain at the weekend; or does it?

UK forecasts for this weekend give high daily amounts and over recent months our perception might be "that it always rains at the weekend", but what does the rainfall record show? The graphic below shows the histogram of daily rainfall for the period 1881 to 2024 (end of March) just short

A look at …. rainfall and the number 18

Recent media weather news has linked the number 18 with rainfall falling over a period of time as shown by the headlines below : One particular bit of weather trivia is about record rainfall over England in the past 18 months ending March 2024, which has been the wettest since rainfall

Teleconnections…..Spring temperature and rainfall

Teleconnections in terms of atmosphere are pressure gradient driven patterns which influence weather at varying spatial and temporal distance.  There are 3 main global pressure oscillations which in turn are linked with Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and jet stream intensity. ENSO  : El nino/La Nina and Southern Oscillation is an index

A look at Easter…. past, now and yet to come!

Easter is a moveable feast which can occur between 22nd March and 25th April with just a few since 1800, including now 2024 straddling across March and April.  Taking a sample of years from 1800 there have been just 54 occasions when Easter Sunday has occurred in March compared with

World Meteorological Day 2024 : 23rd March

the theme this year is  “At the Frontline of Climate Action.” so far today we have had ... sunshine, showers, hail, graupel (soft hail), snow, wide temperature fluctuations, moist air, dry air, gales, Cumulonimbus, glaciated anvil and variously described to "feeling like winter" though i would say typically Spring with Polar Maritime advected from

February – staying mild or becoming warm?

During February day-length increases quite steadily through the month, especially from mid-month with sunset (in Birmingham) just before 5pm at start of the month to near 6pm on 28th.  Along with this, increasing irradiance  enables the first snowdrops to appear and by 29th this year daffodils are in full bloom. 

A look at …. past, now, next…Winter 2024 to Late-February

Following on from the previous A look at...which reviewed by 10-day (decad) periods December 2023 and mid (11th -20th) January 2024 and a forecast mid-January (11th-20th) and late-January (21st-31st); with 2/3rds of the month through and with model forecasts then settling on a BIG change going into late-month a review

A Look At …. past, now, next…Winter 2024 (so far)

With some much media coverage and speculation about forthcoming weather in January over the next 5-10 days coupled with yet more records broken through 2023 and more recently December warrants a more detailed look at past, in this case Winter(s), now (Winter 2024 so far...) and next (remainder of Winter

Storm Henk : in pictures

A few pictures of Storm Henk. Pressure and wind at 6am Tuesday morning, Henk developing ...   Pressure and wind at 2pm this afternoon .... Henk is the low pressure over central parts of the Midlands with the highest wind gusts (yellow colours) over southern England.... Data from University of Birmingham showing