Hot off the press is this ENSO region 3.4 forecast from the IRI. It should El Niño peaking through the next couple of months before starting to weaken. There's good agreement between the models with the mean running at an index of 3,5. then slipping to 2.0 through March/April/May before going neutral
Simon Says
Rainfall this week, welcome relief
Summer thoughts from multi-model C3S
Video: Simon Says – Confidently confident (ensemble spreads)
Ran, rain staying away?
Rain stays elusive over the coming week. Below is the forecast total rainfall and you can see the focus for most of the rain, unsurprisingly, is over eastern areas thanks to the northeast wind. Elsewhere it is totals of generally less than 10mm which dominate. It's staying cold in that easterly wind too,






