After this weekend's unsettled weather, what can we expect through July and into August? I've clipped out the box-and-whisker plot summarizing the ECMWF ensemble results for pressure over the British Isles, which I've pasted below (from Meteociel.fr). A quick orientation: the black line is the control run (one model), the

I recently discovered a great resource called COSMOS-UK, a network of soil moisture monitoring stations. Basic soil moisture data is available in near-real time and I was curious how the recent rains have affected soil moisture. The below image is the daily soil wetness status (corrected for soil type) for

This weekend is shaping up to be an unsettled one - the risk of bursts of heavy rain is present nearly everywhere, and while the precise details of location remain just out of our reach this many days out, we can begin to look at where the greatest chance of