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There’s a window ahead, but it’s not straightforward

There are many media reports of a 'heatwave' hitting the UK through the coming days. Yes, temperatures do look set to rise and it could indeed become hot, especially late this weekend and into the early stages of next week. The temperature graph below shows the 8 day temperature forecast for London

ECMWF 46-day August & September latest

The ECMWF 46-day forecast has just been updated, and is inline with our thoughts on the rest of August. We can't show you the maps, but that doesn't stop me describing whats on them, so here goes ... 13th August to 19th August Higher than average heights east of the country, lower than

UKMO Long Range calls a weak La Nina

The UK Met Office longer range model has just updated its ENSO forecast and is coming in with the idea of a weaker La Nina than initially envisaged. I called a -0.7 for La Nina at a time when models went for a much stronger episode at -1.5 to -2. The UKMO is

When’s the breakdown next week? (updated)

UPDATED Tuesday 9am So, the big question after the fair weather this weekend, and an increase in temperatures, will be "When is the breakdown?". Current thinking is that we need to focus on late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning for the risk of some thunderstorms in parts of Ireland, Wales, western Scotland and

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