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Author: Dr. Simon Keeling

Strong negative NAO mid-October

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

  All the talk has been of El Niño in recent weeks and our attention has been drawn away from other indices. One of these is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). How is the forecast in NAO (the grey shaded and bold black line area) from the excellent Kyle McRitchie site. Just look how

October 2026 Initial Weather Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ OCTOBER 2026 - INITIAL GUIDANCE =============================== Issued: Wednesday 16th September 2026 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Dry start overall + Unsettled mid-month + Mixed, cooler end FACTORS AFFECTING OCTOBER 2026 INITIAL GUIDANCE ================================================= + A mixed pressure pattern as early

High pressure returning says CFS

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

Take a look at the latest weekly’s from the CFS. These are the 500hPa anomalies. Read from right to left (I’m turned them around to make them easier to read). Look at Week 1 (this week) on the right. The green colours show below average heights and hence lower pressure and more

September 2026 – Weather Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ SEPTEMBER 2026 - WEATHER GUIDANCE ================================== Issued: Sunday 30th August 2026 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Mixed to start, mainly north + Warmer south and east + Cooler for all from mid month, few showers FACTORS AFFECTING SEPTEMBER

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