Callers to WeatherLive will know that we have been suggesting for some time that pressure would be building this week. This is now being backed in greater confidence by the models. In the graphs below it's the top one I want you to look at. This compares several models (the different colours).

The latest ECMWF 6-week weather regime forecast is showing a tendency towards a blocking pattern as we get past mid-month. We can't read too much into this but the red colours certainly do tend to be the main pattern type mid to late October. This would interrupt the westerly Atlantic winds and