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Thoughts on winter from Japan

In yesterdays Look Ahead I mentioned the winter forecast from the JMA. Below is the forecast 50mb anomalies through December to February 2022. Notice the yellow colours over the UK which indicate higher than average pressure. The centre of the higher pressures appear to be in the Atlantic and so we'd expect

ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to late November

The ECMWF 6-week outlook has just been published, now taking us into the later stages of November. It makes for typically autumnal reading with wind, rain and frosts in the forecast. The details are below... 16th October to 22nd October Strong southwest flow develops (see chart below). Lower than average heights to north. Risk of gales. Becoming

NAO & AO show way to go for early winter

Something we've not looked at for a while is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. Each prove really very useful when forecasting the weather for the winter months. Here's the NAO forecast from the CFS. Red is what has happened, the grey shading is what is forecast