The long range ECMWF forecast for the next six-weeks has been updated. Treat this one with caution, as if we are about to see a major change in pattern type early in the forecast period models can struggle to pick out any details going forward. Indeed, that's what is highlighted by

TUESDAY MIDNIGHT MODEL UPDATE: Models now want to start a breakdown of sorts across southern UK by Friday, with the threat of thundery  showers. There is still much and certainty and I would expect things to change but it is certainly worth taking the signal from the  overnight models runs that