The ECMWF 46--day makes for interesting reading as there is a definite trend towards more unsettled conditions late in July and into the first half of August. How unsettled is the question at the moment. The ECMWF matches the analogs in that it makes things unsettled with the jet stream developing. Temperatures are

So we've been talking about the risk of showers from Wednesday through Friday. I'm writing this based on the 1800 GMT run of the GFS model (the midnight run isn't available yet). It's still seeing the upper trough drifting through the UK and Ireland on Wednesday and Thursday, but there are differences