Now, the ECMWF 46-day hasn't exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. having predicted cold weather next week, it's retreated back to 'normal' winter mode. I think this reflects the uncertainty of the impact of several factors right now ... Rapid loss of sunlight as we head to the shortest

  The NAO forecast from the CFS model makes for interesting reading today. Look how much more negative the index goes from late January into February. It bounced along in neutral territory overall running up to the negative hit. This suggests that despite Atlantic westerly winds in December, they may not be that