That availability of the numerical long range forecasts going into September tend to allow for the view ahead to be a little clearer. Below is the analogue forecast based on years when an El Nino event started to occur Now, this years event is certainly weak at the present time, but

We're already talking about the forecast for September, time seems to go by ever faster! Here's the latest from the ECMWF 46-day model ... 17th to 24th August Jet stream stays over the north of the UK (see chart). Height are above average, suggesting ridging in the south of the country. Generally dry in southern