The ECMWF 46-day model has been consistent in its predictions of the last few weeks. Today's output is no different with the idea that colder weather is likely is maintained. So here is what the latest guidance suggests ... 14th January to 21st January A ridge of high pressure to the west. Trough to the

Just take a look at the forecast Arctic Oscillation from the CFS model. The forecast is the grey shading. Notice how well into April the AO stays negative...   Now look at the forecast NAO. See how this is bouncing around negative to neutral?     So what to make of it all? Well firstly, I