The ECMWF 6-week model hasn't exactly covered itself ion glory over the past few days. Forecast high pressure from a few weeks ago has failed to materialise, and the model is now back in line with the GFS 35-day ensemble. That's not to dismiss the ECMWF in future, but it needs to

I got asked a question yesterday by a farmer who called WeatherLive , wanting to know why conditions have been so unsettled over the last few months. It's a question that does not have a definitive answer (yet) but I think the main signal is from the Arctic Oscillation. This is the