Last Friday, I recorded a Look Ahead video for the ECMWF 6-Week Outlook. At the end, I showed the "weather regime" chart which outlines the general synoptic pattern we can expect over the British Isles for the coming six weeks. At that time, the NAO+ regime (typically associated with stronger

We've not been able to provide great certainty on the risk of thunderstorms this coming week - slack pressure and poorly-defined weather features makes this job quite challenging. However, we can take a look at the Convective Available Potential Energy (or "CAPE") charts to hone in on this probability. Below