The ECMWF 6-week next generation model is interesting in showing the middle and then second half of May as being wetter. The bars below show the anomalies of (from the top) 2m temperatures, surface temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure for each week to 8th June 2026. Notice how temperatures fall after

The latest forecast for this years El Niño event (remember, El Niño is a naturally occurring event) from several models, compiled by the TIR. Dynamic models (bold purple line) go for around +1.7 whilst Dynamic are +1.3. There's a few outliers putting it into a Super El Niño category, but most go