Hello all,

The latest ECMWF rainfall outlook paints a fairly dry picture for the British Isles during the coming week. Rainfall totals are expected to stay well below average across most of the UK and Ireland, as high pressure remains firmly in charge. This should keep most Atlantic weather systems at bay, leaving many areas with long dry spells and only limited opportunities for rain.

Things become a little more interesting as we head into the following week. The strong dry signal starts to fade, while wetter-than-average conditions appear over the Atlantic to our west and northwest. This could be an early indication that the Atlantic will start to become a little more active again.

If that happens, some weather fronts could begin to reach Ireland and Scotland, bringing occasional outbreaks of rain, while England and Wales may stay drier for longer. At this stage, though, there is nothing to suggest particularly large rainfall totals or a prolonged spell of wet weather.

Confidence is naturally quite low this far ahead, so the timing and extent of any change remain uncertain. For now, the main message is a very dry and settled first week, followed by the possibility of something a little more changeable from the northwest during the second week.

Thank you

Filotas