Hello all,

The latest ECMWF rainfall outlook suggests that a relatively dry weather pattern could remain in place across much of the British Isles over the next couple of weeks. Both charts indicate rainfall totals generally staying below the seasonal average across the UK and Ireland, although there are some interesting regional differences and a few signs of change as we move further into October.

During the first week (12–19 October), the dry signal is quite noticeable across England, Wales and much of Ireland, suggesting that high pressure will continue to play an important role in keeping the more active Atlantic weather systems away from our neighbourhood. However, it is a slightly different story further north, where Scotland, particularly its northern and western parts, may still experience occasional spells of rain. Overall, though, many areas should enjoy a relatively quiet week, with rainfall totals falling short of what we would normally expect at this time of year.

As we head into the second week (19–26 October), the outlook continues to favour relatively dry conditions across much of the British Isles. The below-average rainfall signal remains in place, although it becomes somewhat weaker and less widespread. This could suggest that high pressure will remain close enough to limit the influence of Atlantic weather systems, while occasional fronts may still bring some rain, particularly to Scotland and northwestern Ireland.

Of course, confidence becomes lower as we look further ahead, especially regarding the exact position of high pressure and whether Atlantic systems will manage to push further east. For now, the overall message is a relatively dry and settled couple of weeks for many areas, with no strong indication of widespread or prolonged wet weather. Not completely rain-free, of course, but certainly quieter than we might normally expect during October!

Thank you

Filotas