Wow, it's already the middle of the month and time for an update on where conditions are expected to head in the month ahead.
You'll know if you have been following my Look Ahead videos that the focus has been what happens to the current dry spell, when it ends and then how unsettled the weather becomes.
Overall thinking is for things turning much more unsettled at the end of the month, leading into a cooler, wetter start to April.
There are some uncertainties though, more on these below.
Here's the latest ideas into the middle of April
15th-22nd March 2016
Staying dry during this period. High pressure dominating with the main forecasting challenge being cloud amounts.
A tendency for the high to drift north and west allowing winds to perhaps become more north or northeasterly.
During the day sunshine is likely, always best in the west, with a risk of more cloud to the east.
Overnight fog is possible, as is frost and again it will be central and western areas most prone to this.
Daytime temperatures close to average, mildest in the sunshine in the west, coolest in the east.
23rd to 30th March 2016
Models certainly hint at a trend towards more unsettled conditions during this period.
It may be that this trend is somewhat stop-start, in that weak fronts break through, but then high pressure rebuilds. However, after around 23rd/24th there is likely to be a push into more definate unsettled weather and this trend increases towards the month end. Most rainfall in the west.
The jet stream becomes established overhead, winds increase and there is a threat of some heavy bursts of rain as low pressure passes form west to east.
Becoming cooler too, the risk of some wintry showers in Scotland, especially on hills as low pressure clears east. Daytime temperatures 8 to 12C for most, overnights 2 to 5C, but still a frost risk.
31st March to 6th April 2016
Staying unsettled during this period with the strong westerly flow continuing (see the 500mb forecast anomaly for April below)
It's hard to pick out any drier slots as this period looks set to be dominated by the cooler, wetter westerly wind, courtesy of a strong overhead jet.
Focus for most of the rainfall in the west.
Temperatures close to or just below average. Overnight frost risk is considered low.
7th April to 14th April 2016
Expectations are that despite the jet being in evidence it may be that it becomes weaker.
Still a threat of rain, most in the north and west. Overall though less rain in the east and especially the south.
A weak ridge may build through southern Ireland and southern England reducing the rain risk here.
Temperatures near average, perhaps warmer in the south.
Probabilities
Temperature
Very mild 10%
Mild 15%
Average 30%
Cold 30%
Very cold 15%
