The media have been reporting forecasts for winter; take your pick as to which one you believe.

The Times yesterday reported how long range forecasts were to be improved by a better understanding of the rotational effect of the Earth and how this could then feed into improved forecasts by better predicting La Nona and El Niño.

It's a nice idea, and whilst there would certainly be an improvement if we could better predict the ENSO, this is not some sort of forecasting nirvana. We know ENSO has an impact on the weather of the globe, but there are other factors at play which interrupt the teleconnections and it is not a given that A+B=C.

You know I prefer to called these longer-range thoughts, 'guidance', they certainly are not forecasts.

The Met Office has its forecast for contingency planners available now and talks of October, November and December being 65% likely to have near average rainfall and  a 70% chance of nearer average temperatures.

Others are forecasting colder weather heading into winter, some talk of milder conditions, but the overall consensus fright now is average to cool.

We are still working on our guidance but does seem right now that higher pressure west of the country may lead to drier than average conditions in the months to Christmas. It could be that this brings more of a west to northwest wind and so that would suggest cooler temperatures and an increased risk of air frosts and perhaps some fog. Wintry showers in the north.

It seems to be that it is the end of October and early December before we see higher pressure build and the cooler weather potentially set in.

So that's what we are wtagcing for right now, but of course we will keep you updated.

Just treat to more outlandish claims in the media (white Christmases etc...) with your usually huge pinch of salt!