Let us have a closer look at the current model timings of the rain pushing in on what is a cold front through today. Below are a series of weather charts showing the rain progression and amount from the Arpege (French) model giving what look to be reasonably good timings

We had the ECMWF six week outlook out yesterday and that gave a pretty average outlook to the end of August. What happened to 'better conditions towards the end of the month?!' Hope is not all lost as the ECMWF model is only one model and we have seen it be