The weather pattern has changed and so it's time to update the analogues. Below are based on the previous 14-days and then using the 20th Century Analysis V3 to project forward for the next few months. You can see the 500hPa height anomaly showing the lower heights focused south of the British

In these dry times (at least for much of England, Wales and Southern Ireland) we should take all the rainfall we can. So the next few days are more mixed with rain and showers. Below is the latest forecast to the end of Sunday and, although southern England only sees 5 to

  I mentioned this forecast from the IRI in Monday's Look Ahead video. It shows how the prediction is for wetter than average conditions for the three months of Oct/Nov/Dec across most of the British Isles. The previous three months forecast (Sep/Oct/Nov) was dry and so this suggests that things become wetter