ECMWF C3S Guidance August through December

by Dr. Simon Keeling - July 14, 2018July 14, 2018

The ECMWF has issued it's latest seasonal guidance using the C3S. So here's where it sees things through the autumn and early winter. AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER Higher than average heights. High pressure dominating, mostly to the east. This would allow dry weather to headline through the three month period overall. Note that this is a 3-month mean and

July 2018 – Final Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - June 30, 2018June 30, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ JULY 2018 - FINAL GUIDANCE ========================= Issued: Saturday 30th June 2018 HEADLINES ========== + Fair, very warm start + Dry at first + Tending to more mixed after mid month + Uncertain how mixed later FACTORS AFFECTING JULY

More on the summer early autumn update

by Dr. Simon Keeling - June 14, 2018July 12, 2018

In yesterday's Look Ahead video I showed you the latest set of analogue forecast charts. These aren't disimilar to the charts we've been using through the wniter and spring, which actually held up pretty well. Like I say in the vide, June hasn't turned out (so far) as expected, and I don't think

June 2018 – Final Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - May 31, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ JUNE 2018 - FINAL GUIDANCE ========================== Issued: Thursday 31st May 2018 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Changing mid-month + Settled first half in north + Storms first half in south + More unsettled for last two thirds FACTORS AFFECTING

June 2018 – Preliminary Forecast

by Dr. Simon Keeling - May 19, 2018May 18, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ JUNE 2018 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ============================ Issued: Saturday 19th May 2018 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Treat with caution + Unsettled first half + Better later FACTORS AFFECTING JUNE 2018 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ================================================= + Cooler than average water surrounds the

May 2018 – Final Forecast

by Dr. Simon Keeling - April 30, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ MAY 2018 - FINAL GUIDANCE ============================ Issued: Monday 30th April 2018 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Better than late April + Some fine & warm conditions + Spells of mixed weather too FACTORS AFFECTING MAY 2018 FINAL GUIDANCE ================================================= +

May 2018 – Preliminary Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - April 20, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ MAY 2018 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ============================ Issued: Friday 20th April 2018 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Cool at times + Mixed to unsettled + Better later? FACTORS AFFECTING MAY 2018 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ================================================= + Trough over or close to UK

April 2018 Final Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 30, 2018March 29, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ APRIL 2018 - FINAL GUIDANCE ============================ Issued: Friday 30th March 2018 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Unsettled start + Milder towards mid month + Cool end, showery FACTORS AFFECTING APRIL 2018 FINAL GUIDANCE ================================================= + Tendency for

NAO keeps negative bias into spring & summer

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 22, 2018March 22, 2018

It's been a while since we looked at the NAO, so here's the latest forecast of the NAO from the CFS. Notice just how negative the index has been since the end of February (the red shading). Then see how as we go through spring and into early summer the hints

April 2018 Preliminary Guidance

by Dr. Simon Keeling - March 21, 2018March 28, 2018

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ APRIL 2018 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ================================ Issued: Wednesday 21st March 2018 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Cold and mixed start + Unsettled mid-month + Drier, warmer end to the month FACTORS AFFECTING APRIL 2018 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ================================================= + Tendency for trough