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MARCH & APRIL 2016 UK LONG RANGE FORECAST
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Issued: Sunday 31st January 2016
*** Long range forecasts can, and do change frequently. The forecast below is for guidance only ***
HEADLINES
- Cool couple of months
- Wettest in April
- Windy at times
OVERVIEW
Long range forecasting models are in fair agreement on the forecast for March and April.
The westerly flow is indicated to be dominating throughout the period.
A trough becomes more pronounced during April bringing a notably unsettled month, the threat of some late season cold snaps too.
BREAKDOWN
MARCH
Suggestions for March are that it is likely to be a cool month overall.
A westerly flow is likely to be dominating conditions, as pressure builds to the north of the country.
With the jet stream displaced to the south, most rainfall is expected over western Wales, England and Ireland with less is much of Scotland. Eastern England tending to see near normal rainfall too.
Remaining cool throughout and windy at times.
MARCH PROBABILITIES
Temperature
- Very mild 10%
- Mild 20%
- Average 25%
- Cold 30%
- Very cold 15%
Rainfall
- Very wet 5%
- Wet 30%
- Average 35%
- Dry 20%
- Very dry 10%
APRIL
April has consistently been shown as being an unsettled month and one that will be wetter than March.
With the westerly flow being dominant, rain should be heavy in the south and west with above normal rainfall totals.
A cool month with temperatures below normal for the time of year.
Little change is expected during the month with the cool and unsettled weather continuing throughout.
APRIL PROBABILITIES
Temperature
- Very mild 10%
- Mild 15%
- Average 25%
- Cold 30%
- Very cold 20%
Rainfall
- Very wet 20%
- Wet 30%
- Average 25%
- Dry 15%
- Very dry 10%
**ends**
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