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How wet was winter 2015/16? The stats are out!

I've been taking a look at the precipitation totals in England and Wales through winter 2015/16.

As you know, there has been a claim that winter 2015/16 was 'one of the' the wettest in England and Wales 'since records began'. Both phrases are misleading.

As for the 'one of the wettest' the winter of 2015/16 actually ranked 8th out of 250. yes, that' makes it pretty wet I admit, but the winters of 2013/14, 1914/15, 1989/90, 1876/78, 1994/95, 1993/95 and 18/68/69 were all wetter.

The chart below shows how the rainfall was skewed towards the early parts of the winter, with an overall decline as the season progressed (trend line shown in red). December was predominately wet (the wettest day in England & Wales of the winter being December 30th). After January 10th (day 40 of the winter) it did become drier, and despite a few peaks, the season after this became notably less wet.

 

W&WPrecipWinter2015

(Data from UKMO Hadley centre)

 

Here's the North Atlantic Oscillation Index through winter 2015.

It's interesting to compare this to the rainfall graph above. Notice how the fall into a negative index coincided with the drier weather in January (although a lag of a few days). See how the positive indices match the wetter periods.

NAOWinter2015

(Data from NCEP)

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