As the weather breakdown long forecast for Thursday get's closer, a brief update on the latest ideas.

We are inline with the GFS thoughts on the arrival of the rain which provides the following storyline.

By 9am Thursday morning the rain is across Scotland, into northwest England, through Ireland and knocking o the door of west Wales. You can see from the chart below that the heaviest is western Scotland and Ireland, although even here totals are coming in around 5mm in 3-hours.

By 3pm the rain band is fragmenting but still capable of producing some moderate bursts in northwest England and over western Wales. Patchier rain in northeast England, reaching the Midlands and southwest England too.

Then by 9pm the rain is across southern England, the Midlands, East Anglia as well a southwest England and Wales. See that most of the rain is across southwest England and the southwest of Wales, but much drier weather following t the north. Just a few showers in western Scotland.

Get set for the rain to pep up overnight into the early hours of Good Friday across southern England, totals below show 5mm+ over southern England in the 6hrs between midnight and 6am Friday morning.